Further analysis of actuarial results

Following from my previous post, I provide a further look at the results from the actuarial exams.

The pass rates from each of the subjects are as follows:

  • Investments: 24%
  • Life Insurance Part A (my subject): 23%
  • Life Insurance Part B: 48%
  • General Insurance Part A: 28%
  • General Insurance Part B: 50%
  • Superannuation Part A: 40%
  • Superannuation Part B: 80%
  • Finance Part A: 33%
  • Finance Part B: 36%

Just a few observations:

  1. The pass rates are, apart from a few outliers, quite dismal. It was hoped that the new Part III program will lift pass rates, however from this exam it appears that they have remained stable.

    On a pure probabilistic basis (assuming independence), it would appear that the chance of passing two modules in one year has decreased. (The proof is left as an exercise.) However, that is wrong, as there is a high dependence between passing an exam in one period and passing in another. (Thus under the old system the mode for passing two exams is three attempts.)

  2. The pass rates for Part B are higher than Part A. I think this is simply because this is the first time that the subjects have been split up. Those doing Part B this time around are most likely those who did the whole subject last year, passed Paper 1 but failed Paper 2. Thus the dependence principle above, and the lower enrolments, apply.

  3. Superannuation seems to have the highest pass rates, but with the least enrolments. Superannuation is no longer a very popular subject, partly the result of the movement to accumulation funds over the last 20 years. So the only people who would be doing it would be the superannuation professionals.

So I say again: woot!

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